Formosa Plastics (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 41.7
| 1301 Stock | TWD 43.95 0.15 0.34% |
Formosa |
Formosa Plastics Target Price Odds to finish below 41.7
The tendency of Formosa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 41.70 or more in 90 days |
| 43.95 | 90 days | 41.70 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Formosa Plastics to drop to NT$ 41.70 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Formosa Plastics Corp probability density function shows the probability of Formosa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Formosa Plastics Corp price to stay between NT$ 41.70 and its current price of NT$43.95 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.6 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Formosa Plastics Corp has a beta of -0.19. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Formosa Plastics are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Formosa Plastics Corp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Formosa Plastics Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Formosa Plastics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Formosa Plastics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Formosa Plastics Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Formosa Plastics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Formosa Plastics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Formosa Plastics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Formosa Plastics Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Formosa Plastics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.77 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Formosa Plastics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Formosa Plastics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Formosa Plastics Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Formosa Plastics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 33.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Formosa Plastics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Formosa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Formosa Plastics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Formosa Plastics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.4 B |
Formosa Plastics Technical Analysis
Formosa Plastics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Formosa Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Formosa Plastics Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Formosa Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Formosa Plastics Predictive Forecast Models
Formosa Plastics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Formosa Plastics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Formosa Plastics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Formosa Plastics Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Formosa Plastics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Formosa Plastics Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Formosa Plastics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 33.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Formosa Stock Analysis
When running Formosa Plastics' price analysis, check to measure Formosa Plastics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Formosa Plastics is operating at the current time. Most of Formosa Plastics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Formosa Plastics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Formosa Plastics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Formosa Plastics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.