Namchow Chemical (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 51.34
| 1702 Stock | TWD 52.50 0.20 0.38% |
Namchow |
Namchow Chemical Target Price Odds to finish below 51.34
The tendency of Namchow Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 51.34 or more in 90 days |
| 52.50 | 90 days | 51.34 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Namchow Chemical to drop to NT$ 51.34 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Namchow Chemical Industrial probability density function shows the probability of Namchow Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Namchow Chemical Ind price to stay between NT$ 51.34 and its current price of NT$52.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.73 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Namchow Chemical Industrial has a beta of -0.26. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Namchow Chemical are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Namchow Chemical Industrial is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Namchow Chemical Industrial has an alpha of 0.0303, implying that it can generate a 0.0303 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Namchow Chemical Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Namchow Chemical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Namchow Chemical Ind. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Namchow Chemical Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Namchow Chemical is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Namchow Chemical's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Namchow Chemical Industrial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Namchow Chemical within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.26 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.80 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Namchow Chemical Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Namchow Chemical for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Namchow Chemical Ind can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Namchow Chemical Ind generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Namchow Chemical Ind has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 56.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Namchow Chemical Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Namchow Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Namchow Chemical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Namchow Chemical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 248.1 M |
Namchow Chemical Technical Analysis
Namchow Chemical's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Namchow Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Namchow Chemical Industrial. In general, you should focus on analyzing Namchow Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Namchow Chemical Predictive Forecast Models
Namchow Chemical's time-series forecasting models is one of many Namchow Chemical's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Namchow Chemical's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Namchow Chemical Ind
Checking the ongoing alerts about Namchow Chemical for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Namchow Chemical Ind help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Namchow Chemical Ind generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Namchow Chemical Ind has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 56.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Namchow Stock Analysis
When running Namchow Chemical's price analysis, check to measure Namchow Chemical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Namchow Chemical is operating at the current time. Most of Namchow Chemical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Namchow Chemical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Namchow Chemical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Namchow Chemical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.