Oriental Union (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 15.10
| 1710 Stock | TWD 16.15 0.10 0.62% |
Oriental |
Oriental Union Target Price Odds to finish below 15.10
The tendency of Oriental Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 15.10 or more in 90 days |
| 16.15 | 90 days | 15.10 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Oriental Union to drop to NT$ 15.10 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Oriental Union Chemical probability density function shows the probability of Oriental Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Oriental Union Chemical price to stay between NT$ 15.10 and its current price of NT$16.15 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.27 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Oriental Union Chemical has a beta of -0.0557. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Oriental Union are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Oriental Union Chemical is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Oriental Union Chemical has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Oriental Union Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Oriental Union
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oriental Union Chemical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Oriental Union Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Oriental Union is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Oriental Union's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Oriental Union Chemical, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Oriental Union within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.74 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.22 |
Oriental Union Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Oriental Union for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Oriental Union Chemical can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Oriental Union generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Oriental Union has accumulated NT$8.13 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| Oriental Union Chemical has accumulated 8.13 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 71.6, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Oriental Union Chemical has a current ratio of 0.73, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Oriental Union until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Oriental Union's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Oriental Union Chemical sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Oriental to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Oriental Union's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 45.0% of Oriental Union shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Oriental Union Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Oriental Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Oriental Union's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Oriental Union's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 876.6 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 5.5 B |
Oriental Union Technical Analysis
Oriental Union's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Oriental Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Oriental Union Chemical. In general, you should focus on analyzing Oriental Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Oriental Union Predictive Forecast Models
Oriental Union's time-series forecasting models is one of many Oriental Union's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Oriental Union's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Oriental Union Chemical
Checking the ongoing alerts about Oriental Union for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Oriental Union Chemical help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Oriental Union generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Oriental Union has accumulated NT$8.13 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| Oriental Union Chemical has accumulated 8.13 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 71.6, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Oriental Union Chemical has a current ratio of 0.73, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Oriental Union until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Oriental Union's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Oriental Union Chemical sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Oriental to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Oriental Union's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 45.0% of Oriental Union shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Oriental Stock Analysis
When running Oriental Union's price analysis, check to measure Oriental Union's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Oriental Union is operating at the current time. Most of Oriental Union's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Oriental Union's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Oriental Union's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Oriental Union to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.