Cathay Chemical (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 45.5
| 1713 Stock | TWD 46.60 0.70 1.48% |
Cathay |
Cathay Chemical Target Price Odds to finish below 45.5
The tendency of Cathay Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 45.50 or more in 90 days |
| 46.60 | 90 days | 45.50 | about 1.63 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cathay Chemical to drop to NT$ 45.50 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.63 (This Cathay Chemical Works probability density function shows the probability of Cathay Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cathay Chemical Works price to stay between NT$ 45.50 and its current price of NT$46.6 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.35 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Cathay Chemical has a beta of 0.25. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Cathay Chemical average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Cathay Chemical Works will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Cathay Chemical Works has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Cathay Chemical Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Cathay Chemical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cathay Chemical Works. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cathay Chemical Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cathay Chemical is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cathay Chemical's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cathay Chemical Works, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cathay Chemical within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.39 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.89 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.53 |
Cathay Chemical Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cathay Chemical for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cathay Chemical Works can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Cathay Chemical generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Cathay Chemical Works has accumulated about 686.07 M in cash with (75.18 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.55. | |
| Roughly 62.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Cathay Chemical Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cathay Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cathay Chemical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cathay Chemical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 151 M |
Cathay Chemical Technical Analysis
Cathay Chemical's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cathay Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cathay Chemical Works. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cathay Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cathay Chemical Predictive Forecast Models
Cathay Chemical's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cathay Chemical's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cathay Chemical's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cathay Chemical Works
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cathay Chemical for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cathay Chemical Works help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Cathay Chemical generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Cathay Chemical Works has accumulated about 686.07 M in cash with (75.18 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.55. | |
| Roughly 62.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Cathay Stock Analysis
When running Cathay Chemical's price analysis, check to measure Cathay Chemical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cathay Chemical is operating at the current time. Most of Cathay Chemical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cathay Chemical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cathay Chemical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cathay Chemical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.