TRI CHEMICAL (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 22.66
| 22E Stock | 20.60 0.40 1.98% |
TRI |
TRI CHEMICAL Target Price Odds to finish over 22.66
The tendency of TRI Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 22.66 or more in 90 days |
| 20.60 | 90 days | 22.66 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of TRI CHEMICAL to move over 22.66 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This TRI CHEMICAL LABORATINC probability density function shows the probability of TRI Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of TRI CHEMICAL LABORATINC price to stay between its current price of 20.60 and 22.66 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.31 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon TRI CHEMICAL LABORATINC has a beta of -0.38. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding TRI CHEMICAL are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, TRI CHEMICAL LABORATINC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally TRI CHEMICAL LABORATINC has an alpha of 0.0254, implying that it can generate a 0.0254 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). TRI CHEMICAL Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for TRI CHEMICAL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TRI CHEMICAL LABORATINC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.TRI CHEMICAL Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. TRI CHEMICAL is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the TRI CHEMICAL's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold TRI CHEMICAL LABORATINC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of TRI CHEMICAL within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.38 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.22 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
TRI CHEMICAL Technical Analysis
TRI CHEMICAL's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. TRI Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of TRI CHEMICAL LABORATINC. In general, you should focus on analyzing TRI Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
TRI CHEMICAL Predictive Forecast Models
TRI CHEMICAL's time-series forecasting models is one of many TRI CHEMICAL's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary TRI CHEMICAL's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards TRI CHEMICAL in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, TRI CHEMICAL's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from TRI CHEMICAL options trading.
Other Information on Investing in TRI Stock
TRI CHEMICAL financial ratios help investors to determine whether TRI Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in TRI with respect to the benefits of owning TRI CHEMICAL security.