Elitegroup Computer (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.75
| 2331 Stock | TWD 23.80 0.30 1.28% |
Elitegroup |
Elitegroup Computer Target Price Odds to finish below 18.75
The tendency of Elitegroup Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 18.75 or more in 90 days |
| 23.80 | 90 days | 18.75 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Elitegroup Computer to drop to NT$ 18.75 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Elitegroup Computer Systems probability density function shows the probability of Elitegroup Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Elitegroup Computer price to stay between NT$ 18.75 and its current price of NT$23.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 20.94 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Elitegroup Computer has a beta of 0.39. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Elitegroup Computer average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Elitegroup Computer Systems will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Elitegroup Computer Systems has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Elitegroup Computer Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Elitegroup Computer
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elitegroup Computer. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Elitegroup Computer Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Elitegroup Computer is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Elitegroup Computer's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Elitegroup Computer Systems, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Elitegroup Computer within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.78 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Elitegroup Computer Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Elitegroup Computer for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Elitegroup Computer can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Elitegroup Computer generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Elitegroup Computer Systems has accumulated about 7.03 B in cash with (2 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 12.62. | |
| Roughly 52.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Elitegroup Computer Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Elitegroup Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Elitegroup Computer's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Elitegroup Computer's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 557.4 M |
Elitegroup Computer Technical Analysis
Elitegroup Computer's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Elitegroup Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Elitegroup Computer Systems. In general, you should focus on analyzing Elitegroup Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Elitegroup Computer Predictive Forecast Models
Elitegroup Computer's time-series forecasting models is one of many Elitegroup Computer's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Elitegroup Computer's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Elitegroup Computer
Checking the ongoing alerts about Elitegroup Computer for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Elitegroup Computer help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Elitegroup Computer generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Elitegroup Computer Systems has accumulated about 7.03 B in cash with (2 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 12.62. | |
| Roughly 52.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Elitegroup Stock Analysis
When running Elitegroup Computer's price analysis, check to measure Elitegroup Computer's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Elitegroup Computer is operating at the current time. Most of Elitegroup Computer's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Elitegroup Computer's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Elitegroup Computer's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Elitegroup Computer to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.