Asustek Computer (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 421.80
| 2357 Stock | TWD 588.00 7.00 1.20% |
Asustek |
Asustek Computer Target Price Odds to finish below 421.80
The tendency of Asustek Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 421.80 or more in 90 days |
| 588.00 | 90 days | 421.80 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Asustek Computer to drop to NT$ 421.80 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Asustek Computer probability density function shows the probability of Asustek Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Asustek Computer price to stay between NT$ 421.80 and its current price of NT$588.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 61.42 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Asustek Computer has a beta of 0.0412. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Asustek Computer average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Asustek Computer will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Asustek Computer has an alpha of 0.0962, implying that it can generate a 0.0962 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Asustek Computer Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Asustek Computer
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Asustek Computer. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Asustek Computer Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Asustek Computer is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Asustek Computer's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Asustek Computer, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Asustek Computer within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 27.60 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
Asustek Computer Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Asustek Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Asustek Computer's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Asustek Computer's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 742.8 M |
Asustek Computer Technical Analysis
Asustek Computer's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Asustek Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Asustek Computer. In general, you should focus on analyzing Asustek Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Asustek Computer Predictive Forecast Models
Asustek Computer's time-series forecasting models is one of many Asustek Computer's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Asustek Computer's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Asustek Computer in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Asustek Computer's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Asustek Computer options trading.
Additional Tools for Asustek Stock Analysis
When running Asustek Computer's price analysis, check to measure Asustek Computer's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Asustek Computer is operating at the current time. Most of Asustek Computer's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Asustek Computer's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Asustek Computer's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Asustek Computer to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.