Elan Microelectronics (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 148.5
| 2458 Stock | TWD 148.50 1.50 1.00% |
Elan |
Elan Microelectronics Target Price Odds to finish below 148.5
The tendency of Elan Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 148.50 | 90 days | 148.50 | about 75.06 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Elan Microelectronics to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 75.06 (This Elan Microelectronics Corp probability density function shows the probability of Elan Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Elan Microelectronics has a beta of 0.97. This suggests Elan Microelectronics Corp market returns are correlated to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Elan Microelectronics is expected to follow. Additionally Elan Microelectronics Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Elan Microelectronics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Elan Microelectronics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elan Microelectronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Elan Microelectronics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Elan Microelectronics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Elan Microelectronics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Elan Microelectronics Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Elan Microelectronics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.97 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.71 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
Elan Microelectronics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Elan Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Elan Microelectronics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Elan Microelectronics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 285 M |
Elan Microelectronics Technical Analysis
Elan Microelectronics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Elan Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Elan Microelectronics Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Elan Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Elan Microelectronics Predictive Forecast Models
Elan Microelectronics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Elan Microelectronics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Elan Microelectronics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Elan Microelectronics in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Elan Microelectronics' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Elan Microelectronics options trading.
Additional Tools for Elan Stock Analysis
When running Elan Microelectronics' price analysis, check to measure Elan Microelectronics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Elan Microelectronics is operating at the current time. Most of Elan Microelectronics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Elan Microelectronics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Elan Microelectronics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Elan Microelectronics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.