Amtran Technology (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.9
| 2489 Stock | TWD 19.55 0.10 0.51% |
Amtran |
Amtran Technology Target Price Odds to finish below 18.9
The tendency of Amtran Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 18.90 or more in 90 days |
| 19.55 | 90 days | 18.90 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Amtran Technology to drop to NT$ 18.90 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Amtran Technology Co probability density function shows the probability of Amtran Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Amtran Technology price to stay between NT$ 18.90 and its current price of NT$19.55 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.87 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Amtran Technology has a beta of 0.56. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Amtran Technology average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Amtran Technology Co will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Amtran Technology Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Amtran Technology Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Amtran Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amtran Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Amtran Technology Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Amtran Technology is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Amtran Technology's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Amtran Technology Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Amtran Technology within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.28 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.56 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
Amtran Technology Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Amtran Technology for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Amtran Technology can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Amtran Technology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 14.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Amtran Technology Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Amtran Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Amtran Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amtran Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 713.6 M |
Amtran Technology Technical Analysis
Amtran Technology's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Amtran Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Amtran Technology Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Amtran Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Amtran Technology Predictive Forecast Models
Amtran Technology's time-series forecasting models is one of many Amtran Technology's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Amtran Technology's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Amtran Technology
Checking the ongoing alerts about Amtran Technology for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Amtran Technology help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Amtran Technology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 14.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Amtran Stock Analysis
When running Amtran Technology's price analysis, check to measure Amtran Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amtran Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Amtran Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amtran Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amtran Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amtran Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.