Air Asia (Taiwan) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 28.69
| 2630 Stock | TWD 30.50 1.00 3.17% |
Air |
Air Asia Target Price Odds to finish below 28.69
The tendency of Air Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 28.69 or more in 90 days |
| 30.50 | 90 days | 28.69 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Air Asia to drop to NT$ 28.69 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Air Asia Co probability density function shows the probability of Air Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Air Asia price to stay between NT$ 28.69 and its current price of NT$30.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.17 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Air Asia has a beta of 0.57. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Air Asia average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Air Asia Co will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Air Asia Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Air Asia Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Air Asia
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Air Asia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Air Asia Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Air Asia is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Air Asia's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Air Asia Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Air Asia within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.57 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.38 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Air Asia Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Air Asia for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Air Asia can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Air Asia generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Air Asia Co has accumulated about 568.64 M in cash with (122.25 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.51. | |
| Roughly 78.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Air Asia Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Air Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Air Asia's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Air Asia's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 150.4 M |
Air Asia Technical Analysis
Air Asia's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Air Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Air Asia Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Air Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Air Asia Predictive Forecast Models
Air Asia's time-series forecasting models is one of many Air Asia's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Air Asia's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Air Asia
Checking the ongoing alerts about Air Asia for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Air Asia help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Air Asia generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Air Asia Co has accumulated about 568.64 M in cash with (122.25 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.51. | |
| Roughly 78.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Air Stock Analysis
When running Air Asia's price analysis, check to measure Air Asia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Air Asia is operating at the current time. Most of Air Asia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Air Asia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Air Asia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Air Asia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.