Lion Travel (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 143.73
| 2731 Stock | TWD 126.00 3.00 2.44% |
Lion |
Lion Travel Target Price Odds to finish below 143.73
The tendency of Lion Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under NT$ 143.73 after 90 days |
| 126.00 | 90 days | 143.73 | about 99.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Lion Travel to stay under NT$ 143.73 after 90 days from now is about 99.0 (This Lion Travel Service probability density function shows the probability of Lion Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Lion Travel Service price to stay between its current price of NT$ 126.00 and NT$ 143.73 at the end of the 90-day period is about 76.37 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Lion Travel Service has a beta of -0.0962. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Lion Travel are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Lion Travel Service is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Lion Travel Service has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Lion Travel Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Lion Travel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lion Travel Service. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lion Travel Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Lion Travel is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Lion Travel's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Lion Travel Service, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Lion Travel within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.83 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Lion Travel Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Lion Travel for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Lion Travel Service can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Lion Travel Service generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Lion Travel Service has accumulated NT$1.03 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.76 B. Net Loss for the year was (469.99 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 304.93 M. | |
| Lion Travel Service has accumulated about 3.57 B in cash with (315.8 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 50.94. | |
| Roughly 40.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Lion Travel Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Lion Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Lion Travel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lion Travel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 73.7 M |
Lion Travel Technical Analysis
Lion Travel's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Lion Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Lion Travel Service. In general, you should focus on analyzing Lion Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Lion Travel Predictive Forecast Models
Lion Travel's time-series forecasting models is one of many Lion Travel's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Lion Travel's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Lion Travel Service
Checking the ongoing alerts about Lion Travel for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Lion Travel Service help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Lion Travel Service generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Lion Travel Service has accumulated NT$1.03 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.76 B. Net Loss for the year was (469.99 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 304.93 M. | |
| Lion Travel Service has accumulated about 3.57 B in cash with (315.8 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 50.94. | |
| Roughly 40.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Lion Stock Analysis
When running Lion Travel's price analysis, check to measure Lion Travel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lion Travel is operating at the current time. Most of Lion Travel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lion Travel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lion Travel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lion Travel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.