Cathay Financial (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 49.35
| 2882B Stock | TWD 59.50 0.10 0.17% |
Cathay |
Cathay Financial Target Price Odds to finish below 49.35
The tendency of Cathay Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 49.35 or more in 90 days |
| 59.50 | 90 days | 49.35 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cathay Financial to drop to NT$ 49.35 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Cathay Financial Holding probability density function shows the probability of Cathay Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cathay Financial Holding price to stay between NT$ 49.35 and its current price of NT$59.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 90.76 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Cathay Financial Holding has a beta of -0.0022. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Cathay Financial are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Cathay Financial Holding is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Cathay Financial Holding has an alpha of 0.053, implying that it can generate a 0.053 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Cathay Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Cathay Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cathay Financial Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cathay Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cathay Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cathay Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cathay Financial Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cathay Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.0022 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.10 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.25 |
Cathay Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cathay Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cathay Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cathay Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13.2 B |
Cathay Financial Technical Analysis
Cathay Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cathay Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cathay Financial Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cathay Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cathay Financial Predictive Forecast Models
Cathay Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cathay Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cathay Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Cathay Financial in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Cathay Financial's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Cathay Financial options trading.
Additional Tools for Cathay Stock Analysis
When running Cathay Financial's price analysis, check to measure Cathay Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cathay Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Cathay Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cathay Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cathay Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cathay Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.