Mega Financial (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 38.9
| 2886 Stock | TWD 39.75 0.30 0.76% |
Mega |
Mega Financial Target Price Odds to finish below 38.9
The tendency of Mega Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 38.90 or more in 90 days |
| 39.75 | 90 days | 38.90 | about 17.97 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mega Financial to drop to NT$ 38.90 or more in 90 days from now is about 17.97 (This Mega Financial Holding probability density function shows the probability of Mega Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mega Financial Holding price to stay between NT$ 38.90 and its current price of NT$39.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 74.24 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Mega Financial Holding has a beta of -0.0314. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Mega Financial are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Mega Financial Holding is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Mega Financial Holding has an alpha of 0.0137, implying that it can generate a 0.0137 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Mega Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mega Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mega Financial Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Mega Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mega Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mega Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mega Financial Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mega Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.36 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Mega Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mega Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mega Financial Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mega Financial has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Mega Financial Holding has accumulated about 367.56 B in cash with (234.79 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 26.37. | |
| Roughly 15.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Mega Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mega Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mega Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mega Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13.6 B |
Mega Financial Technical Analysis
Mega Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mega Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mega Financial Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mega Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mega Financial Predictive Forecast Models
Mega Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mega Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mega Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mega Financial Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mega Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mega Financial Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mega Financial has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Mega Financial Holding has accumulated about 367.56 B in cash with (234.79 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 26.37. | |
| Roughly 15.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Mega Stock Analysis
When running Mega Financial's price analysis, check to measure Mega Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mega Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Mega Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mega Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mega Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mega Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.