IBF Financial (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 13.02
| 2889 Stock | TWD 14.25 0.10 0.70% |
IBF |
IBF Financial Target Price Odds to finish below 13.02
The tendency of IBF Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 13.02 or more in 90 days |
| 14.25 | 90 days | 13.02 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of IBF Financial to drop to NT$ 13.02 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This IBF Financial Holdings probability density function shows the probability of IBF Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of IBF Financial Holdings price to stay between NT$ 13.02 and its current price of NT$14.25 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon IBF Financial Holdings has a beta of -0.0643. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding IBF Financial are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, IBF Financial Holdings is likely to outperform the market. Additionally IBF Financial Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. IBF Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for IBF Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as IBF Financial Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.IBF Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. IBF Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the IBF Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold IBF Financial Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of IBF Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.45 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
IBF Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of IBF Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for IBF Financial Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| IBF Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| IBF Financial has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| IBF Financial Holdings has accumulated 264.36 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 6.16, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. IBF Financial Holdings has a current ratio of 0.79, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist IBF Financial until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, IBF Financial's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like IBF Financial Holdings sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for IBF to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about IBF Financial's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| IBF Financial Holdings has accumulated about 142.4 B in cash with (7.02 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 47.51, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 24.0% of IBF Financial shares are owned by insiders or employees |
IBF Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of IBF Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential IBF Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. IBF Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3 B |
IBF Financial Technical Analysis
IBF Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. IBF Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of IBF Financial Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing IBF Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
IBF Financial Predictive Forecast Models
IBF Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many IBF Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary IBF Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about IBF Financial Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about IBF Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for IBF Financial Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| IBF Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| IBF Financial has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| IBF Financial Holdings has accumulated 264.36 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 6.16, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. IBF Financial Holdings has a current ratio of 0.79, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist IBF Financial until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, IBF Financial's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like IBF Financial Holdings sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for IBF to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about IBF Financial's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| IBF Financial Holdings has accumulated about 142.4 B in cash with (7.02 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 47.51, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 24.0% of IBF Financial shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for IBF Stock Analysis
When running IBF Financial's price analysis, check to measure IBF Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy IBF Financial is operating at the current time. Most of IBF Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of IBF Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move IBF Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of IBF Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.