CTBC Financial (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 55.18
| 2891C Stock | TWD 56.60 0.20 0.35% |
CTBC |
CTBC Financial Target Price Odds to finish below 55.18
The tendency of CTBC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 55.18 or more in 90 days |
| 56.60 | 90 days | 55.18 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CTBC Financial to drop to NT$ 55.18 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This CTBC Financial Holding probability density function shows the probability of CTBC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CTBC Financial Holding price to stay between NT$ 55.18 and its current price of NT$56.6 at the end of the 90-day period is about 57.08 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon CTBC Financial Holding has a beta of -0.0403. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding CTBC Financial are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, CTBC Financial Holding is likely to outperform the market. Additionally CTBC Financial Holding has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. CTBC Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for CTBC Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CTBC Financial Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CTBC Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CTBC Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CTBC Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CTBC Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CTBC Financial Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CTBC Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.44 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.53 |
CTBC Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CTBC Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CTBC Financial Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| CTBC Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| CTBC Financial Holding has accumulated 313.96 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.73, which is about average as compared to similar companies. CTBC Financial Holding has a current ratio of 0.28, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist CTBC Financial until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, CTBC Financial's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like CTBC Financial Holding sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for CTBC to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about CTBC Financial's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| CTBC Financial Holding has accumulated about 856.06 B in cash with (34.19 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 43.91. |
CTBC Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CTBC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CTBC Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CTBC Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.5 B | |
| Dividends Paid | -21.5 B | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 1.92 | |
| Shares Float | 17.3 B |
CTBC Financial Technical Analysis
CTBC Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CTBC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CTBC Financial Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing CTBC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CTBC Financial Predictive Forecast Models
CTBC Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many CTBC Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CTBC Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about CTBC Financial Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about CTBC Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CTBC Financial Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| CTBC Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| CTBC Financial Holding has accumulated 313.96 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.73, which is about average as compared to similar companies. CTBC Financial Holding has a current ratio of 0.28, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist CTBC Financial until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, CTBC Financial's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like CTBC Financial Holding sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for CTBC to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about CTBC Financial's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| CTBC Financial Holding has accumulated about 856.06 B in cash with (34.19 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 43.91. |
Additional Tools for CTBC Stock Analysis
When running CTBC Financial's price analysis, check to measure CTBC Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CTBC Financial is operating at the current time. Most of CTBC Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CTBC Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CTBC Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CTBC Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.