Tonlin Department (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 21.46
| 2910 Stock | TWD 26.35 0.05 0.19% |
Tonlin |
Tonlin Department Target Price Odds to finish below 21.46
The tendency of Tonlin Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 21.46 or more in 90 days |
| 26.35 | 90 days | 21.46 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Tonlin Department to drop to NT$ 21.46 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Tonlin Department Store probability density function shows the probability of Tonlin Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Tonlin Department Store price to stay between NT$ 21.46 and its current price of NT$26.35 at the end of the 90-day period is about 47.56 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Tonlin Department has a beta of 0.47. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Tonlin Department average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Tonlin Department Store will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Tonlin Department Store has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Tonlin Department Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Tonlin Department
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tonlin Department Store. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Tonlin Department Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Tonlin Department is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Tonlin Department's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Tonlin Department Store, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Tonlin Department within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.47 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.21 |
Tonlin Department Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Tonlin Department for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Tonlin Department Store can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Tonlin Department generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Tonlin Department has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Tonlin Department Store has accumulated 2.12 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 153.0, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Tonlin Department Store has a current ratio of 0.86, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Tonlin Department until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Tonlin Department's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Tonlin Department Store sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Tonlin to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Tonlin Department's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 77.0% of Tonlin Department shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Tonlin Department Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Tonlin Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Tonlin Department's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tonlin Department's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 175.4 M |
Tonlin Department Technical Analysis
Tonlin Department's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Tonlin Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Tonlin Department Store. In general, you should focus on analyzing Tonlin Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Tonlin Department Predictive Forecast Models
Tonlin Department's time-series forecasting models is one of many Tonlin Department's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Tonlin Department's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Tonlin Department Store
Checking the ongoing alerts about Tonlin Department for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Tonlin Department Store help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Tonlin Department generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Tonlin Department has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Tonlin Department Store has accumulated 2.12 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 153.0, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Tonlin Department Store has a current ratio of 0.86, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Tonlin Department until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Tonlin Department's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Tonlin Department Store sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Tonlin to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Tonlin Department's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 77.0% of Tonlin Department shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Tonlin Stock Analysis
When running Tonlin Department's price analysis, check to measure Tonlin Department's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tonlin Department is operating at the current time. Most of Tonlin Department's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tonlin Department's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tonlin Department's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tonlin Department to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.