AUTO TRADER (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.24
| 2UA0 Stock | 2.48 0.02 0.81% |
AUTO |
AUTO TRADER Target Price Odds to finish over 2.24
The tendency of AUTO Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 2.24 in 90 days |
| 2.48 | 90 days | 2.24 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AUTO TRADER to stay above 2.24 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This AUTO TRADER ADR probability density function shows the probability of AUTO Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AUTO TRADER ADR price to stay between 2.24 and its current price of 2.48 at the end of the 90-day period is about 40.76 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon AUTO TRADER has a beta of 0.62. This suggests as returns on the market go up, AUTO TRADER average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AUTO TRADER ADR will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AUTO TRADER ADR has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. AUTO TRADER Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AUTO TRADER
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AUTO TRADER ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AUTO TRADER Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AUTO TRADER is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AUTO TRADER's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AUTO TRADER ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AUTO TRADER within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.62 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
AUTO TRADER Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AUTO Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AUTO TRADER's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AUTO TRADER's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividend Yield | 0.0142 |
AUTO TRADER Technical Analysis
AUTO TRADER's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AUTO Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AUTO TRADER ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing AUTO Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AUTO TRADER Predictive Forecast Models
AUTO TRADER's time-series forecasting models is one of many AUTO TRADER's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AUTO TRADER's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards AUTO TRADER in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, AUTO TRADER's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from AUTO TRADER options trading.
Other Information on Investing in AUTO Stock
AUTO TRADER financial ratios help investors to determine whether AUTO Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AUTO with respect to the benefits of owning AUTO TRADER security.