GenMont Biotech (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 22.45
| 3164 Stock | TWD 20.05 0.10 0.50% |
GenMont |
GenMont Biotech Target Price Odds to finish below 22.45
The tendency of GenMont Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under NT$ 22.45 after 90 days |
| 20.05 | 90 days | 22.45 | about 56.62 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of GenMont Biotech to stay under NT$ 22.45 after 90 days from now is about 56.62 (This GenMont Biotech probability density function shows the probability of GenMont Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of GenMont Biotech price to stay between its current price of NT$ 20.05 and NT$ 22.45 at the end of the 90-day period is about 55.22 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon GenMont Biotech has a beta of -0.0333. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding GenMont Biotech are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, GenMont Biotech is likely to outperform the market. Additionally GenMont Biotech has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. GenMont Biotech Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for GenMont Biotech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GenMont Biotech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.GenMont Biotech Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. GenMont Biotech is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the GenMont Biotech's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold GenMont Biotech, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of GenMont Biotech within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.21 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.35 |
GenMont Biotech Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of GenMont Biotech for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for GenMont Biotech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| GenMont Biotech generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 37.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
GenMont Biotech Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of GenMont Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential GenMont Biotech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GenMont Biotech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 86.4 M |
GenMont Biotech Technical Analysis
GenMont Biotech's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. GenMont Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of GenMont Biotech. In general, you should focus on analyzing GenMont Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
GenMont Biotech Predictive Forecast Models
GenMont Biotech's time-series forecasting models is one of many GenMont Biotech's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary GenMont Biotech's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about GenMont Biotech
Checking the ongoing alerts about GenMont Biotech for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for GenMont Biotech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| GenMont Biotech generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 37.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for GenMont Stock Analysis
When running GenMont Biotech's price analysis, check to measure GenMont Biotech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GenMont Biotech is operating at the current time. Most of GenMont Biotech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GenMont Biotech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GenMont Biotech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GenMont Biotech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.