Optivision Technology (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 27.54
| 3666 Stock | TWD 29.55 0.40 1.34% |
Optivision |
Optivision Technology Target Price Odds to finish below 27.54
The tendency of Optivision Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 27.54 or more in 90 days |
| 29.55 | 90 days | 27.54 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Optivision Technology to drop to NT$ 27.54 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Optivision Technology probability density function shows the probability of Optivision Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Optivision Technology price to stay between NT$ 27.54 and its current price of NT$29.55 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.56 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Optivision Technology has a beta of -0.38. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Optivision Technology are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Optivision Technology is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Optivision Technology has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Optivision Technology Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Optivision Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Optivision Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Optivision Technology Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Optivision Technology is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Optivision Technology's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Optivision Technology, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Optivision Technology within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.38 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.62 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Optivision Technology Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Optivision Technology for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Optivision Technology can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Optivision Technology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Optivision Technology has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.73 B. Net Loss for the year was (32.17 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 148.78 M. | |
| About 48.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Optivision Technology Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Optivision Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Optivision Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Optivision Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 56.2 M |
Optivision Technology Technical Analysis
Optivision Technology's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Optivision Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Optivision Technology. In general, you should focus on analyzing Optivision Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Optivision Technology Predictive Forecast Models
Optivision Technology's time-series forecasting models is one of many Optivision Technology's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Optivision Technology's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Optivision Technology
Checking the ongoing alerts about Optivision Technology for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Optivision Technology help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Optivision Technology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Optivision Technology has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.73 B. Net Loss for the year was (32.17 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 148.78 M. | |
| About 48.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Optivision Stock Analysis
When running Optivision Technology's price analysis, check to measure Optivision Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Optivision Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Optivision Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Optivision Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Optivision Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Optivision Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.