Excelsior Medical (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 75.5
| 4104 Stock | TWD 86.70 0.30 0.34% |
Excelsior |
Excelsior Medical Target Price Odds to finish below 75.5
The tendency of Excelsior Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 75.50 or more in 90 days |
| 86.70 | 90 days | 75.50 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Excelsior Medical to drop to NT$ 75.50 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Excelsior Medical Co probability density function shows the probability of Excelsior Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Excelsior Medical price to stay between NT$ 75.50 and its current price of NT$86.7 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.35 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Excelsior Medical has a beta of 0.15. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Excelsior Medical average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Excelsior Medical Co will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Excelsior Medical Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Excelsior Medical Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Excelsior Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Excelsior Medical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Excelsior Medical Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Excelsior Medical is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Excelsior Medical's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Excelsior Medical Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Excelsior Medical within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.54 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.45 |
Excelsior Medical Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Excelsior Medical for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Excelsior Medical can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Excelsior Medical generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 40.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Excelsior Medical Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Excelsior Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Excelsior Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Excelsior Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 141.1 M |
Excelsior Medical Technical Analysis
Excelsior Medical's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Excelsior Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Excelsior Medical Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Excelsior Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Excelsior Medical Predictive Forecast Models
Excelsior Medical's time-series forecasting models is one of many Excelsior Medical's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Excelsior Medical's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Excelsior Medical
Checking the ongoing alerts about Excelsior Medical for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Excelsior Medical help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Excelsior Medical generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 40.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Excelsior Stock Analysis
When running Excelsior Medical's price analysis, check to measure Excelsior Medical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Excelsior Medical is operating at the current time. Most of Excelsior Medical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Excelsior Medical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Excelsior Medical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Excelsior Medical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.