OBI Pharma (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 61.09
| 4174 Stock | TWD 62.90 0.40 0.63% |
OBI |
OBI Pharma Target Price Odds to finish below 61.09
The tendency of OBI Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 61.09 or more in 90 days |
| 62.90 | 90 days | 61.09 | about 8.88 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of OBI Pharma to drop to NT$ 61.09 or more in 90 days from now is about 8.88 (This OBI Pharma probability density function shows the probability of OBI Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of OBI Pharma price to stay between NT$ 61.09 and its current price of NT$62.9 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.89 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon OBI Pharma has a beta of -0.35. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding OBI Pharma are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, OBI Pharma is likely to outperform the market. Additionally OBI Pharma has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. OBI Pharma Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for OBI Pharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OBI Pharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.OBI Pharma Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. OBI Pharma is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the OBI Pharma's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold OBI Pharma, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of OBI Pharma within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.52 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.35 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.32 |
OBI Pharma Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of OBI Pharma for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for OBI Pharma can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| OBI Pharma generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 18.77 M. Net Loss for the year was (1.53 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (25.59 M). | |
| OBI Pharma has accumulated about 3.57 B in cash with (1.06 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 17.92. | |
| Roughly 37.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
OBI Pharma Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of OBI Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential OBI Pharma's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. OBI Pharma's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 201 M |
OBI Pharma Technical Analysis
OBI Pharma's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. OBI Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of OBI Pharma. In general, you should focus on analyzing OBI Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
OBI Pharma Predictive Forecast Models
OBI Pharma's time-series forecasting models is one of many OBI Pharma's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary OBI Pharma's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about OBI Pharma
Checking the ongoing alerts about OBI Pharma for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for OBI Pharma help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| OBI Pharma generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 18.77 M. Net Loss for the year was (1.53 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (25.59 M). | |
| OBI Pharma has accumulated about 3.57 B in cash with (1.06 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 17.92. | |
| Roughly 37.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for OBI Stock Analysis
When running OBI Pharma's price analysis, check to measure OBI Pharma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy OBI Pharma is operating at the current time. Most of OBI Pharma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of OBI Pharma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move OBI Pharma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of OBI Pharma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.