Mechema Chemicals (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 74.73
| 4721 Stock | TWD 72.50 0.50 0.68% |
Mechema |
Mechema Chemicals Target Price Odds to finish over 74.73
The tendency of Mechema Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over NT$ 74.73 or more in 90 days |
| 72.50 | 90 days | 74.73 | about 6.92 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mechema Chemicals to move over NT$ 74.73 or more in 90 days from now is about 6.92 (This Mechema Chemicals Int probability density function shows the probability of Mechema Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mechema Chemicals Int price to stay between its current price of NT$ 72.50 and NT$ 74.73 at the end of the 90-day period is about 30.75 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Mechema Chemicals has a beta of 0.13. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Mechema Chemicals average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mechema Chemicals Int will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mechema Chemicals Int has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Mechema Chemicals Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mechema Chemicals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mechema Chemicals Int. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Mechema Chemicals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mechema Chemicals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mechema Chemicals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mechema Chemicals Int, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mechema Chemicals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.91 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Mechema Chemicals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mechema Chemicals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mechema Chemicals Int can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mechema Chemicals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Mechema Chemicals generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 30.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Mechema Chemicals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mechema Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mechema Chemicals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mechema Chemicals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 75 M |
Mechema Chemicals Technical Analysis
Mechema Chemicals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mechema Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mechema Chemicals Int. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mechema Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mechema Chemicals Predictive Forecast Models
Mechema Chemicals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Mechema Chemicals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mechema Chemicals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mechema Chemicals Int
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mechema Chemicals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mechema Chemicals Int help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mechema Chemicals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Mechema Chemicals generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 30.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Mechema Stock Analysis
When running Mechema Chemicals' price analysis, check to measure Mechema Chemicals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mechema Chemicals is operating at the current time. Most of Mechema Chemicals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mechema Chemicals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mechema Chemicals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mechema Chemicals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.