New Era (Taiwan) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 68.72
| 4909 Stock | TWD 114.50 3.50 3.15% |
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New Era Target Price Odds to finish below 68.72
The tendency of New Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 68.72 or more in 90 days |
| 114.50 | 90 days | 68.72 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of New Era to drop to NT$ 68.72 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This New Era Electronics probability density function shows the probability of New Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of New Era Electronics price to stay between NT$ 68.72 and its current price of NT$114.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.36 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon New Era has a beta of 0.0881. This suggests as returns on the market go up, New Era average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding New Era Electronics will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally New Era Electronics has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. New Era Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for New Era
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Era Electronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.New Era Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. New Era is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the New Era's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold New Era Electronics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of New Era within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 23.38 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
New Era Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of New Era for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for New Era Electronics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| New Era Electronics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| New Era Electronics has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the revenue of 673.31 M. Net Loss for the year was (117.86 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (16.71 M). | |
| New Era Electronics has accumulated about 2.46 B in cash with (104.27 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 26.35. | |
| Roughly 30.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
New Era Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of New Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential New Era's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. New Era's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 93.4 M |
New Era Technical Analysis
New Era's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. New Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of New Era Electronics. In general, you should focus on analyzing New Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
New Era Predictive Forecast Models
New Era's time-series forecasting models is one of many New Era's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary New Era's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about New Era Electronics
Checking the ongoing alerts about New Era for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for New Era Electronics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| New Era Electronics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| New Era Electronics has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the revenue of 673.31 M. Net Loss for the year was (117.86 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (16.71 M). | |
| New Era Electronics has accumulated about 2.46 B in cash with (104.27 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 26.35. | |
| Roughly 30.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for New Stock Analysis
When running New Era's price analysis, check to measure New Era's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy New Era is operating at the current time. Most of New Era's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of New Era's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move New Era's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of New Era to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.