GRUPO CARSO-A1 (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.34
| 4GF Stock | 5.30 0.05 0.95% |
GRUPO |
GRUPO CARSO-A1 Target Price Odds to finish below 5.34
The tendency of GRUPO Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 5.34 after 90 days |
| 5.30 | 90 days | 5.34 | about 40.35 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of GRUPO CARSO-A1 to stay under 5.34 after 90 days from now is about 40.35 (This GRUPO CARSO A1 probability density function shows the probability of GRUPO Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of GRUPO CARSO A1 price to stay between its current price of 5.30 and 5.34 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.8 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon GRUPO CARSO A1 has a beta of -0.49. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding GRUPO CARSO-A1 are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, GRUPO CARSO A1 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally GRUPO CARSO A1 has an alpha of 0.0601, implying that it can generate a 0.0601 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). GRUPO CARSO-A1 Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for GRUPO CARSO-A1
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GRUPO CARSO A1. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of GRUPO CARSO-A1's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
GRUPO CARSO-A1 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. GRUPO CARSO-A1 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the GRUPO CARSO-A1's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold GRUPO CARSO A1, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of GRUPO CARSO-A1 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.49 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.17 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
GRUPO CARSO-A1 Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of GRUPO CARSO-A1 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for GRUPO CARSO A1 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| GRUPO CARSO A1 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| GRUPO CARSO A1 has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
GRUPO CARSO-A1 Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of GRUPO Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential GRUPO CARSO-A1's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GRUPO CARSO-A1's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.3 B | |
| Dividends Paid | 2.4 B | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 5.5 B |
GRUPO CARSO-A1 Technical Analysis
GRUPO CARSO-A1's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. GRUPO Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of GRUPO CARSO A1. In general, you should focus on analyzing GRUPO Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
GRUPO CARSO-A1 Predictive Forecast Models
GRUPO CARSO-A1's time-series forecasting models is one of many GRUPO CARSO-A1's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary GRUPO CARSO-A1's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about GRUPO CARSO A1
Checking the ongoing alerts about GRUPO CARSO-A1 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for GRUPO CARSO A1 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| GRUPO CARSO A1 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| GRUPO CARSO A1 has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
Additional Tools for GRUPO Stock Analysis
When running GRUPO CARSO-A1's price analysis, check to measure GRUPO CARSO-A1's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GRUPO CARSO-A1 is operating at the current time. Most of GRUPO CARSO-A1's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GRUPO CARSO-A1's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GRUPO CARSO-A1's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GRUPO CARSO-A1 to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.