M/I Homes (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 108.11
| 4MI Stock | EUR 150.30 0.30 0.20% |
M/I |
M/I Homes Target Price Odds to finish below 108.11
The tendency of M/I Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 108.11 or more in 90 days |
| 150.30 | 90 days | 108.11 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of M/I Homes to drop to € 108.11 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This MI Homes probability density function shows the probability of M/I Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of M/I Homes price to stay between € 108.11 and its current price of €150.3 at the end of the 90-day period is about 57.54 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.73 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, M/I Homes will likely underperform. Additionally MI Homes has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. M/I Homes Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for M/I Homes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as M/I Homes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.M/I Homes Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. M/I Homes is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the M/I Homes' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MI Homes, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of M/I Homes within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.73 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.86 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0001 |
M/I Homes Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of M/I Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential M/I Homes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. M/I Homes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.4 M |
M/I Homes Technical Analysis
M/I Homes' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. M/I Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MI Homes. In general, you should focus on analyzing M/I Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
M/I Homes Predictive Forecast Models
M/I Homes' time-series forecasting models is one of many M/I Homes' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary M/I Homes' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards M/I Homes in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, M/I Homes' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from M/I Homes options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in M/I Stock
When determining whether M/I Homes offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of M/I Homes' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Mi Homes Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Mi Homes Stock:Check out M/I Homes Backtesting, M/I Homes Valuation, M/I Homes Correlation, M/I Homes Hype Analysis, M/I Homes Volatility, M/I Homes History as well as M/I Homes Performance. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.