Chain Chon (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 7.94
| 5014 Stock | TWD 14.75 0.10 0.68% |
Chain |
Chain Chon Target Price Odds to finish below 7.94
The tendency of Chain Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 7.94 or more in 90 days |
| 14.75 | 90 days | 7.94 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Chain Chon to drop to NT$ 7.94 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Chain Chon Industrial probability density function shows the probability of Chain Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Chain Chon Industrial price to stay between NT$ 7.94 and its current price of NT$14.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.73 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Chain Chon has a beta of 0.68. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Chain Chon average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Chain Chon Industrial will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Chain Chon Industrial has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Chain Chon Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Chain Chon
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chain Chon Industrial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Chain Chon Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Chain Chon is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Chain Chon's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Chain Chon Industrial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Chain Chon within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.21 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.68 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.49 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Chain Chon Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Chain Chon for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Chain Chon Industrial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Chain Chon generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Chain Chon Industrial has accumulated about 242.32 M in cash with (190.51 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.47. | |
| Roughly 23.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Chain Chon Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Chain Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Chain Chon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chain Chon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 185.3 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 3.8 B |
Chain Chon Technical Analysis
Chain Chon's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Chain Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Chain Chon Industrial. In general, you should focus on analyzing Chain Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Chain Chon Predictive Forecast Models
Chain Chon's time-series forecasting models is one of many Chain Chon's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Chain Chon's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Chain Chon Industrial
Checking the ongoing alerts about Chain Chon for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Chain Chon Industrial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Chain Chon generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Chain Chon Industrial has accumulated about 242.32 M in cash with (190.51 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.47. | |
| Roughly 23.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Chain Stock Analysis
When running Chain Chon's price analysis, check to measure Chain Chon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chain Chon is operating at the current time. Most of Chain Chon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chain Chon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chain Chon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chain Chon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.