Hibiscus Petroleum (Malaysia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 4.19
| 5199 Stock | 2.08 0.01 0.48% |
Hibiscus |
Hibiscus Petroleum Target Price Odds to finish over 4.19
The tendency of Hibiscus Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 4.19 or more in 90 days |
| 2.08 | 90 days | 4.19 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hibiscus Petroleum to move over 4.19 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Hibiscus Petroleum BHD probability density function shows the probability of Hibiscus Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD price to stay between its current price of 2.08 and 4.19 at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.02 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Hibiscus Petroleum has a beta of 0.018. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Hibiscus Petroleum average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Hibiscus Petroleum BHD will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Hibiscus Petroleum BHD has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Hibiscus Petroleum Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Hibiscus Petroleum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hibiscus Petroleum BHD. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Hibiscus Petroleum Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hibiscus Petroleum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hibiscus Petroleum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hibiscus Petroleum BHD, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hibiscus Petroleum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.10 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Hibiscus Petroleum Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Hibiscus Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Hibiscus Petroleum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hibiscus Petroleum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 544.8 M |
Hibiscus Petroleum Technical Analysis
Hibiscus Petroleum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hibiscus Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hibiscus Petroleum BHD. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hibiscus Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Hibiscus Petroleum Predictive Forecast Models
Hibiscus Petroleum's time-series forecasting models is one of many Hibiscus Petroleum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Hibiscus Petroleum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Hibiscus Petroleum in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Hibiscus Petroleum's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Hibiscus Petroleum options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Hibiscus Stock
Hibiscus Petroleum financial ratios help investors to determine whether Hibiscus Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Hibiscus with respect to the benefits of owning Hibiscus Petroleum security.