Kunyue Development (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 40.74
| 5206 Stock | TWD 40.90 0.25 0.61% |
Kunyue |
Kunyue Development Target Price Odds to finish below 40.74
The tendency of Kunyue Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 40.74 or more in 90 days |
| 40.90 | 90 days | 40.74 | about 57.2 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Kunyue Development to drop to NT$ 40.74 or more in 90 days from now is about 57.2 (This Kunyue Development Co probability density function shows the probability of Kunyue Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Kunyue Development price to stay between NT$ 40.74 and its current price of NT$40.9 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.65 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Kunyue Development has a beta of 0.34. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Kunyue Development average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Kunyue Development Co will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Kunyue Development Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Kunyue Development Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Kunyue Development
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kunyue Development. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Kunyue Development Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Kunyue Development is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Kunyue Development's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Kunyue Development Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Kunyue Development within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.24 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.34 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.78 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Kunyue Development Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Kunyue Development for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Kunyue Development can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Kunyue Development generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Kunyue Development has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Kunyue Development Co has accumulated about 636.32 M in cash with (1 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.08. | |
| Roughly 75.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Kunyue Development Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Kunyue Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Kunyue Development's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kunyue Development's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 155.9 M |
Kunyue Development Technical Analysis
Kunyue Development's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Kunyue Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Kunyue Development Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Kunyue Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Kunyue Development Predictive Forecast Models
Kunyue Development's time-series forecasting models is one of many Kunyue Development's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Kunyue Development's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Kunyue Development
Checking the ongoing alerts about Kunyue Development for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Kunyue Development help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Kunyue Development generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Kunyue Development has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Kunyue Development Co has accumulated about 636.32 M in cash with (1 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.08. | |
| Roughly 75.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Kunyue Stock Analysis
When running Kunyue Development's price analysis, check to measure Kunyue Development's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kunyue Development is operating at the current time. Most of Kunyue Development's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kunyue Development's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kunyue Development's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kunyue Development to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.