INNOVATEC SPA (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.74
| 5JT Stock | EUR 0.92 0.06 6.98% |
INNOVATEC |
INNOVATEC SPA Target Price Odds to finish below 0.74
The tendency of INNOVATEC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 0.74 or more in 90 days |
| 0.92 | 90 days | 0.74 | roughly 2.95 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of INNOVATEC SPA to drop to € 0.74 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.95 (This INNOVATEC SPA probability density function shows the probability of INNOVATEC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of INNOVATEC SPA price to stay between € 0.74 and its current price of €0.92 at the end of the 90-day period is about 90.42 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon INNOVATEC SPA has a beta of -1.34. This suggests as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding INNOVATEC SPA are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, INNOVATEC SPA is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally INNOVATEC SPA has an alpha of 0.2373, implying that it can generate a 0.24 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). INNOVATEC SPA Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for INNOVATEC SPA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as INNOVATEC SPA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.INNOVATEC SPA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. INNOVATEC SPA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the INNOVATEC SPA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold INNOVATEC SPA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of INNOVATEC SPA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.24 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.34 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0059 |
INNOVATEC SPA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of INNOVATEC SPA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for INNOVATEC SPA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| INNOVATEC SPA had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| INNOVATEC SPA has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| About 78.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
INNOVATEC SPA Technical Analysis
INNOVATEC SPA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. INNOVATEC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of INNOVATEC SPA. In general, you should focus on analyzing INNOVATEC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
INNOVATEC SPA Predictive Forecast Models
INNOVATEC SPA's time-series forecasting models is one of many INNOVATEC SPA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary INNOVATEC SPA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about INNOVATEC SPA
Checking the ongoing alerts about INNOVATEC SPA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for INNOVATEC SPA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| INNOVATEC SPA had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| INNOVATEC SPA has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| About 78.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in INNOVATEC Stock
INNOVATEC SPA financial ratios help investors to determine whether INNOVATEC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in INNOVATEC with respect to the benefits of owning INNOVATEC SPA security.