Vista Outdoor (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 21.88
| 5VO Stock | EUR 23.73 0.00 0.00% |
Vista |
Vista Outdoor Target Price Odds to finish below 21.88
The tendency of Vista Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 21.88 or more in 90 days |
| 23.73 | 90 days | 21.88 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vista Outdoor to drop to € 21.88 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Vista Outdoor probability density function shows the probability of Vista Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vista Outdoor price to stay between € 21.88 and its current price of €23.73 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Vista Outdoor has a beta of 0.19. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Vista Outdoor average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Vista Outdoor will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Vista Outdoor has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Vista Outdoor Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vista Outdoor
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vista Outdoor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Vista Outdoor Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vista Outdoor is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vista Outdoor's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vista Outdoor, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vista Outdoor within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.4 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.66 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Vista Outdoor Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vista Outdoor for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vista Outdoor can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Vista Outdoor is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Vista Outdoor generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Vista Outdoor has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Vista Outdoor has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
Vista Outdoor Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vista Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vista Outdoor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vista Outdoor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 56.1 M |
Vista Outdoor Technical Analysis
Vista Outdoor's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vista Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vista Outdoor. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vista Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vista Outdoor Predictive Forecast Models
Vista Outdoor's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vista Outdoor's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vista Outdoor's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vista Outdoor
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vista Outdoor for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vista Outdoor help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Vista Outdoor is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Vista Outdoor generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Vista Outdoor has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Vista Outdoor has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
Other Information on Investing in Vista Stock
Vista Outdoor financial ratios help investors to determine whether Vista Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Vista with respect to the benefits of owning Vista Outdoor security.