China Southern (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.05

600029 Stock   7.24  0.27  3.87%   
China Southern's future price is the expected price of China Southern instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of China Southern Airlines performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out China Southern Backtesting, China Southern Valuation, China Southern Correlation, China Southern Hype Analysis, China Southern Volatility, China Southern History as well as China Southern Performance.
  
Please specify China Southern's target price for which you would like China Southern odds to be computed.

China Southern Target Price Odds to finish below 0.05

The tendency of China Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to  0.05  or more in 90 days
 7.24 90 days 0.05 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of China Southern to drop to  0.05  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This China Southern Airlines probability density function shows the probability of China Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of China Southern Airlines price to stay between  0.05  and its current price of 7.24 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon China Southern has a beta of 0.16. This suggests as returns on the market go up, China Southern average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding China Southern Airlines will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally China Southern Airlines has an alpha of 0.4595, implying that it can generate a 0.46 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   China Southern Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for China Southern

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Southern Airlines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.797.149.49
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.427.7710.12
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
4.647.009.35
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
5.706.367.02
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as China Southern. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against China Southern's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, China Southern's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in China Southern Airlines.

China Southern Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. China Southern is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the China Southern's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold China Southern Airlines, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of China Southern within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.46
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.16
σ
Overall volatility
0.46
Ir
Information ratio 0.15

China Southern Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of China Southern for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for China Southern Airlines can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company reported the revenue of 159.93 B. Net Loss for the year was (4.21 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (18.8 B).
About 73.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

China Southern Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of China Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential China Southern's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Southern's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding18.1 B

China Southern Technical Analysis

China Southern's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. China Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of China Southern Airlines. In general, you should focus on analyzing China Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

China Southern Predictive Forecast Models

China Southern's time-series forecasting models is one of many China Southern's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary China Southern's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about China Southern Airlines

Checking the ongoing alerts about China Southern for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for China Southern Airlines help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company reported the revenue of 159.93 B. Net Loss for the year was (4.21 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (18.8 B).
About 73.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

Other Information on Investing in China Stock

China Southern financial ratios help investors to determine whether China Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in China with respect to the benefits of owning China Southern security.