Hainan Airlines (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.67
| 600221 Stock | 1.74 0.03 1.69% |
Hainan |
Hainan Airlines Target Price Odds to finish below 1.67
The tendency of Hainan Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 1.67 or more in 90 days |
| 1.74 | 90 days | 1.67 | about 83.38 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hainan Airlines to drop to 1.67 or more in 90 days from now is about 83.38 (This Hainan Airlines Co probability density function shows the probability of Hainan Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hainan Airlines price to stay between 1.67 and its current price of 1.74 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.49 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Hainan Airlines has a beta of 0.0913. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Hainan Airlines average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Hainan Airlines Co will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Hainan Airlines Co has an alpha of 0.8341, implying that it can generate a 0.83 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Hainan Airlines Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Hainan Airlines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hainan Airlines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Hainan Airlines Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hainan Airlines is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hainan Airlines' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hainan Airlines Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hainan Airlines within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.83 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.35 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.17 |
Hainan Airlines Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Hainan Airlines for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Hainan Airlines can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Hainan Airlines may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Hainan Airlines appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 46.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Hainan Airlines Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Hainan Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Hainan Airlines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hainan Airlines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 43.2 B |
Hainan Airlines Technical Analysis
Hainan Airlines' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hainan Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hainan Airlines Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hainan Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Hainan Airlines Predictive Forecast Models
Hainan Airlines' time-series forecasting models is one of many Hainan Airlines' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Hainan Airlines' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Hainan Airlines
Checking the ongoing alerts about Hainan Airlines for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Hainan Airlines help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Hainan Airlines may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Hainan Airlines appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 46.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in Hainan Stock
Hainan Airlines financial ratios help investors to determine whether Hainan Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Hainan with respect to the benefits of owning Hainan Airlines security.