Industrial (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.30
| 601398 Stock | 6.07 0.02 0.33% |
Industrial |
Industrial Target Price Odds to finish below 4.30
The tendency of Industrial Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 4.30 or more in 90 days |
| 6.07 | 90 days | 4.30 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Industrial to drop to 4.30 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Industrial and Commercial probability density function shows the probability of Industrial Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Industrial and Commercial price to stay between 4.30 and its current price of 6.07 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.97 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Industrial and Commercial has a beta of -0.44. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Industrial are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Industrial and Commercial is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Industrial and Commercial has an alpha of 0.0648, implying that it can generate a 0.0648 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Industrial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Industrial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Industrial and Commercial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Industrial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Industrial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Industrial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Industrial and Commercial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Industrial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.44 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Industrial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Industrial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Industrial and Commercial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Industrial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 88.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited Announces Resignation of Xiong Yan as Chief Business Officer - Marketscreener.com |
Industrial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Industrial Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Industrial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Industrial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 356.4 B |
Industrial Technical Analysis
Industrial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Industrial Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Industrial and Commercial. In general, you should focus on analyzing Industrial Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Industrial Predictive Forecast Models
Industrial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Industrial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Industrial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Industrial and Commercial
Checking the ongoing alerts about Industrial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Industrial and Commercial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Industrial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 88.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited Announces Resignation of Xiong Yan as Chief Business Officer - Marketscreener.com |
Other Information on Investing in Industrial Stock
Industrial financial ratios help investors to determine whether Industrial Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Industrial with respect to the benefits of owning Industrial security.