Heilongjiang Publishing (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.96
| 605577 Stock | 16.80 0.08 0.48% |
Heilongjiang |
Heilongjiang Publishing Target Price Odds to finish below 16.96
The tendency of Heilongjiang Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 16.96 after 90 days |
| 16.80 | 90 days | 16.96 | over 95.62 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Heilongjiang Publishing to stay under 16.96 after 90 days from now is over 95.62 (This Heilongjiang Publishing Media probability density function shows the probability of Heilongjiang Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Heilongjiang Publishing price to stay between its current price of 16.80 and 16.96 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.03 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Heilongjiang Publishing Media has a beta of -0.21. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Heilongjiang Publishing are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Heilongjiang Publishing Media is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Heilongjiang Publishing Media has an alpha of 0.3393, implying that it can generate a 0.34 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Heilongjiang Publishing Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Heilongjiang Publishing
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Heilongjiang Publishing. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Heilongjiang Publishing Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Heilongjiang Publishing is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Heilongjiang Publishing's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Heilongjiang Publishing Media, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Heilongjiang Publishing within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.34 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Heilongjiang Publishing Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Heilongjiang Publishing for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Heilongjiang Publishing can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Heilongjiang Publishing appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Heilongjiang Publishing is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 83.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Heilongjiang Publishing Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Heilongjiang Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Heilongjiang Publishing's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Heilongjiang Publishing's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 444.4 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 48.9 M | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 0.08 | |
| Shares Float | 76.7 M |
Heilongjiang Publishing Technical Analysis
Heilongjiang Publishing's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Heilongjiang Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Heilongjiang Publishing Media. In general, you should focus on analyzing Heilongjiang Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Heilongjiang Publishing Predictive Forecast Models
Heilongjiang Publishing's time-series forecasting models is one of many Heilongjiang Publishing's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Heilongjiang Publishing's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Heilongjiang Publishing
Checking the ongoing alerts about Heilongjiang Publishing for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Heilongjiang Publishing help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Heilongjiang Publishing appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Heilongjiang Publishing is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 83.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in Heilongjiang Stock
Heilongjiang Publishing financial ratios help investors to determine whether Heilongjiang Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Heilongjiang with respect to the benefits of owning Heilongjiang Publishing security.