Acbel Polytech (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 26.78
| 6282 Stock | TWD 33.10 0.25 0.76% |
Acbel |
Acbel Polytech Target Price Odds to finish below 26.78
The tendency of Acbel Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 26.78 or more in 90 days |
| 33.10 | 90 days | 26.78 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Acbel Polytech to drop to NT$ 26.78 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Acbel Polytech probability density function shows the probability of Acbel Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Acbel Polytech price to stay between NT$ 26.78 and its current price of NT$33.1 at the end of the 90-day period is about 45.8 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Acbel Polytech has a beta of -0.41. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Acbel Polytech are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Acbel Polytech is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Acbel Polytech has an alpha of 0.0141, implying that it can generate a 0.0141 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Acbel Polytech Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Acbel Polytech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Acbel Polytech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Acbel Polytech Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Acbel Polytech is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Acbel Polytech's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Acbel Polytech, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Acbel Polytech within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Acbel Polytech Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Acbel Polytech for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Acbel Polytech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Acbel Polytech generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Acbel Polytech has accumulated about 5.19 B in cash with (747.14 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.06. | |
| Roughly 28.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Acbel Polytech Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Acbel Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Acbel Polytech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Acbel Polytech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 516.6 M |
Acbel Polytech Technical Analysis
Acbel Polytech's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Acbel Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Acbel Polytech. In general, you should focus on analyzing Acbel Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Acbel Polytech Predictive Forecast Models
Acbel Polytech's time-series forecasting models is one of many Acbel Polytech's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Acbel Polytech's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Acbel Polytech
Checking the ongoing alerts about Acbel Polytech for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Acbel Polytech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Acbel Polytech generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Acbel Polytech has accumulated about 5.19 B in cash with (747.14 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.06. | |
| Roughly 28.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Acbel Stock Analysis
When running Acbel Polytech's price analysis, check to measure Acbel Polytech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Acbel Polytech is operating at the current time. Most of Acbel Polytech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Acbel Polytech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Acbel Polytech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Acbel Polytech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.