Algonquin Power (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.49
| 751 Stock | EUR 4.52 0.06 1.31% |
Algonquin |
Algonquin Power Target Price Odds to finish below 4.49
The tendency of Algonquin Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 4.49 or more in 90 days |
| 4.52 | 90 days | 4.49 | about 18.86 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Algonquin Power to drop to € 4.49 or more in 90 days from now is about 18.86 (This Algonquin Power Utilities probability density function shows the probability of Algonquin Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Algonquin Power Utilities price to stay between € 4.49 and its current price of €4.52 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.51 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Algonquin Power has a beta of 0.34. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Algonquin Power average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Algonquin Power Utilities will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Algonquin Power Utilities has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Algonquin Power Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Algonquin Power
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Algonquin Power Utilities. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Algonquin Power Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Algonquin Power is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Algonquin Power's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Algonquin Power Utilities, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Algonquin Power within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.34 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Algonquin Power Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Algonquin Power for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Algonquin Power Utilities can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Algonquin Power generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Algonquin Power has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Algonquin Power has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations |
Algonquin Power Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Algonquin Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Algonquin Power's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Algonquin Power's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 672 M |
Algonquin Power Technical Analysis
Algonquin Power's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Algonquin Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Algonquin Power Utilities. In general, you should focus on analyzing Algonquin Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Algonquin Power Predictive Forecast Models
Algonquin Power's time-series forecasting models is one of many Algonquin Power's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Algonquin Power's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Algonquin Power Utilities
Checking the ongoing alerts about Algonquin Power for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Algonquin Power Utilities help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Algonquin Power generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Algonquin Power has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Algonquin Power has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Algonquin Stock
When determining whether Algonquin Power Utilities offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Algonquin Power's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Algonquin Power Utilities Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Algonquin Power Utilities Stock:Check out Algonquin Power Backtesting, Algonquin Power Valuation, Algonquin Power Correlation, Algonquin Power Hype Analysis, Algonquin Power Volatility, Algonquin Power History as well as Algonquin Power Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.