Traton SE (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 37.11
| 8TRA Stock | 28.70 0.60 2.14% |
Traton |
Traton SE Target Price Odds to finish over 37.11
The tendency of Traton Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 37.11 or more in 90 days |
| 28.70 | 90 days | 37.11 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Traton SE to move over 37.11 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Traton SE probability density function shows the probability of Traton Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Traton SE price to stay between its current price of 28.70 and 37.11 at the end of the 90-day period is about 74.85 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Traton SE has a beta of 0.6. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Traton SE average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Traton SE will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Traton SE has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Traton SE Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Traton SE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Traton SE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Traton SE Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Traton SE is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Traton SE's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Traton SE, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Traton SE within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.60 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Traton SE Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Traton SE for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Traton SE can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Traton SE generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 90.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Traton SE Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Traton Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Traton SE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Traton SE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 500 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.8 B |
Traton SE Technical Analysis
Traton SE's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Traton Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Traton SE. In general, you should focus on analyzing Traton Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Traton SE Predictive Forecast Models
Traton SE's time-series forecasting models is one of many Traton SE's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Traton SE's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Traton SE
Checking the ongoing alerts about Traton SE for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Traton SE help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Traton SE generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 90.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in Traton Stock
Traton SE financial ratios help investors to determine whether Traton Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Traton with respect to the benefits of owning Traton SE security.