American Airlines (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 84.85
| AALL34 Stock | BRL 87.38 3.62 3.98% |
American |
American Airlines Target Price Odds to finish below 84.85
The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 84.85 or more in 90 days |
| 87.38 | 90 days | 84.85 | under 95 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Airlines to drop to R$ 84.85 or more in 90 days from now is under 95 (This American Airlines Group probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Airlines price to stay between R$ 84.85 and its current price of R$87.38 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.44 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon American Airlines Group has a beta of -0.2. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding American Airlines are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, American Airlines Group is likely to outperform the market. Additionally American Airlines Group has an alpha of 0.7997, implying that it can generate a 0.8 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). American Airlines Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for American Airlines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Airlines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.American Airlines Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Airlines is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Airlines' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Airlines Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Airlines within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.80 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.73 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.26 |
American Airlines Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Airlines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Airlines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 650.6 M |
American Airlines Technical Analysis
American Airlines' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Airlines Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
American Airlines Predictive Forecast Models
American Airlines' time-series forecasting models is one of many American Airlines' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Airlines' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Airlines in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Airlines' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Airlines options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in American Stock
When determining whether American Airlines is a strong investment it is important to analyze American Airlines' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American Airlines' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.