Applied Opt Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 32.89
| AAOI Stock | USD 37.99 2.49 7.01% |
Applied |
Applied Opt Target Price Odds to finish over 32.89
The tendency of Applied Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 32.89 in 90 days |
| 37.99 | 90 days | 32.89 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Applied Opt to stay above $ 32.89 in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Applied Opt probability density function shows the probability of Applied Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Applied Opt price to stay between $ 32.89 and its current price of $37.99 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.79 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Applied Opt will likely underperform. In addition to that Applied Opt has an alpha of 2.1512, implying that it can generate a 2.15 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Applied Opt Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Applied Opt
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applied Opt. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Applied Opt Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Applied Opt is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Applied Opt's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Applied Opt, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Applied Opt within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 2.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.79 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.97 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.26 |
Applied Opt Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Applied Opt for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Applied Opt can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Applied Opt is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Applied Opt appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 217.65 M. Net Loss for the year was (56.05 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 33.63 M. | |
| Applied Opt currently holds about 26.27 M in cash with (7.93 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.92. | |
| Roughly 68.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Applied Optoelectronics Filed Patent Infringement Lawsuit Against Eoptolink Technology USA Inc. |
Applied Opt Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Applied Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Applied Opt's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Applied Opt's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 31.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 45.4 M |
Applied Opt Technical Analysis
Applied Opt's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Applied Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Applied Opt. In general, you should focus on analyzing Applied Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Applied Opt Predictive Forecast Models
Applied Opt's time-series forecasting models is one of many Applied Opt's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Applied Opt's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Applied Opt
Checking the ongoing alerts about Applied Opt for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Applied Opt help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Applied Opt is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Applied Opt appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 217.65 M. Net Loss for the year was (56.05 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 33.63 M. | |
| Applied Opt currently holds about 26.27 M in cash with (7.93 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.92. | |
| Roughly 68.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Applied Optoelectronics Filed Patent Infringement Lawsuit Against Eoptolink Technology USA Inc. |
Check out Applied Opt Backtesting, Applied Opt Valuation, Applied Opt Correlation, Applied Opt Hype Analysis, Applied Opt Volatility, Applied Opt History as well as Applied Opt Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Applied Stock please use our How to Invest in Applied Opt guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Communications Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Applied Opt. If investors know Applied will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Applied Opt listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.04) | Revenue Per Share 5.35 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.042 | Return On Assets (0.11) | Return On Equity (0.41) |
The market value of Applied Opt is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Applied that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Applied Opt's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Applied Opt's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Applied Opt's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Applied Opt's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Applied Opt's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Applied Opt is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Applied Opt's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.