Ariana Resources (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.93
| AAU Stock | 2.45 0.15 6.52% |
Ariana |
Ariana Resources Target Price Odds to finish over 2.93
The tendency of Ariana Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 2.93 or more in 90 days |
| 2.45 | 90 days | 2.93 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ariana Resources to move over 2.93 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Ariana Resources plc probability density function shows the probability of Ariana Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ariana Resources plc price to stay between its current price of 2.45 and 2.93 at the end of the 90-day period is about 30.55 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Ariana Resources plc has a beta of -0.35. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Ariana Resources are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Ariana Resources plc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Ariana Resources plc has an alpha of 0.5914, implying that it can generate a 0.59 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ariana Resources Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ariana Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ariana Resources plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ariana Resources Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ariana Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ariana Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ariana Resources plc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ariana Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.59 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.35 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
Ariana Resources Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ariana Resources for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ariana Resources plc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ariana Resources plc appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Net Loss for the year was (218 K) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Ariana Resources generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 44.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Ariana Resources Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ariana Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ariana Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ariana Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
| Dividends Paid | 8000.00 | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.1 M |
Ariana Resources Technical Analysis
Ariana Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ariana Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ariana Resources plc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ariana Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ariana Resources Predictive Forecast Models
Ariana Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many Ariana Resources' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ariana Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ariana Resources plc
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ariana Resources for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ariana Resources plc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ariana Resources plc appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Net Loss for the year was (218 K) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Ariana Resources generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 44.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Ariana Stock
Ariana Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ariana Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ariana with respect to the benefits of owning Ariana Resources security.