Advantage Oil Gas Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 6.95
| AAV Stock | CAD 9.37 0.23 2.40% |
Advantage |
Advantage Oil Target Price Odds to finish below 6.95
The tendency of Advantage Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to C$ 6.95 or more in 90 days |
| 9.37 | 90 days | 6.95 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Advantage Oil to drop to C$ 6.95 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Advantage Oil Gas probability density function shows the probability of Advantage Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Advantage Oil Gas price to stay between C$ 6.95 and its current price of C$9.37 at the end of the 90-day period is about 72.54 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Advantage Oil has a beta of 0.41. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Advantage Oil average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Advantage Oil Gas will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Advantage Oil Gas has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Advantage Oil Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Advantage Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Advantage Oil Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Advantage Oil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Advantage Oil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Advantage Oil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Advantage Oil Gas, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Advantage Oil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Advantage Oil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Advantage Oil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Advantage Oil Gas can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Advantage Oil Gas generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Advantage Oil Gas is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Advantage Oil Gas has accumulated 353.98 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.08, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Advantage Oil Gas has a current ratio of 0.79, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Advantage Oil until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Advantage Oil's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Advantage Oil Gas sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Advantage to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Advantage Oil's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Advantage Oil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Advantage Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Advantage Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Advantage Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 171.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 19.3 M |
Advantage Oil Technical Analysis
Advantage Oil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Advantage Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Advantage Oil Gas. In general, you should focus on analyzing Advantage Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Advantage Oil Predictive Forecast Models
Advantage Oil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Advantage Oil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Advantage Oil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Advantage Oil Gas
Checking the ongoing alerts about Advantage Oil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Advantage Oil Gas help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Advantage Oil Gas generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Advantage Oil Gas is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Advantage Oil Gas has accumulated 353.98 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.08, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Advantage Oil Gas has a current ratio of 0.79, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Advantage Oil until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Advantage Oil's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Advantage Oil Gas sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Advantage to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Advantage Oil's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Other Information on Investing in Advantage Stock
Advantage Oil financial ratios help investors to determine whether Advantage Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Advantage with respect to the benefits of owning Advantage Oil security.