High Yield Municipal Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 8.08
| ABHYX Fund | USD 8.96 0.01 0.11% |
High-yield |
High-yield Municipal Target Price Odds to finish below 8.08
The tendency of High-yield Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 8.08 or more in 90 days |
| 8.96 | 90 days | 8.08 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of High-yield Municipal to drop to $ 8.08 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This High Yield Municipal Fund probability density function shows the probability of High-yield Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of High Yield Municipal price to stay between $ 8.08 and its current price of $8.96 at the end of the 90-day period is about 57.56 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon High Yield Municipal Fund has a beta of -0.12. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding High-yield Municipal are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, High Yield Municipal Fund is likely to outperform the market. Additionally High Yield Municipal Fund has an alpha of 0.0189, implying that it can generate a 0.0189 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). High-yield Municipal Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for High-yield Municipal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as High Yield Municipal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of High-yield Municipal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
High-yield Municipal Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. High-yield Municipal is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the High-yield Municipal's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold High Yield Municipal Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of High-yield Municipal within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.41 |
High-yield Municipal Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of High-yield Municipal for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for High Yield Municipal can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund generated three year return of -1.0% | |
| High Yield Municipal holds most of the assets under management (AUM) in different types of exotic instruments. |
High-yield Municipal Technical Analysis
High-yield Municipal's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. High-yield Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of High Yield Municipal Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing High-yield Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
High-yield Municipal Predictive Forecast Models
High-yield Municipal's time-series forecasting models is one of many High-yield Municipal's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary High-yield Municipal's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about High Yield Municipal
Checking the ongoing alerts about High-yield Municipal for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for High Yield Municipal help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund generated three year return of -1.0% | |
| High Yield Municipal holds most of the assets under management (AUM) in different types of exotic instruments. |
Other Information on Investing in High-yield Mutual Fund
High-yield Municipal financial ratios help investors to determine whether High-yield Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in High-yield with respect to the benefits of owning High-yield Municipal security.
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