Acadia Pharmaceuticals Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 15.11
| ACAD Stock | USD 16.54 0.17 1.04% |
ACADIA |
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Target Price Odds to finish below 15.11
The tendency of ACADIA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 15.11 or more in 90 days |
| 16.54 | 90 days | 15.11 | about 25.31 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals to drop to $ 15.11 or more in 90 days from now is about 25.31 (This ACADIA Pharmaceuticals probability density function shows the probability of ACADIA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals price to stay between $ 15.11 and its current price of $16.54 at the end of the 90-day period is about 55.08 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.63 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals will likely underperform. Additionally ACADIA Pharmaceuticals has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ACADIA Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.63 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.94 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 726.44 M. Net Loss for the year was (61.29 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 145.49 M. | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ACADIA HEALTHCARE COMPANY, INC. DEADLINE ALERT Bernstein Liebhard LLP Reminds ... |
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ACADIA Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 163.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 438.9 M |
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ACADIA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals. In general, you should focus on analyzing ACADIA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Predictive Forecast Models
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' time-series forecasting models is one of many ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ACADIA Pharmaceuticals
Checking the ongoing alerts about ACADIA Pharmaceuticals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 726.44 M. Net Loss for the year was (61.29 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 145.49 M. | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ACADIA HEALTHCARE COMPANY, INC. DEADLINE ALERT Bernstein Liebhard LLP Reminds ... |
Check out ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Backtesting, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Valuation, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Correlation, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Hype Analysis, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Volatility, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals History as well as ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Performance. For information on how to trade ACADIA Stock refer to our How to Trade ACADIA Stock guide.You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals. If investors know ACADIA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ACADIA Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 28.347 | Earnings Share 0.78 | Revenue Per Share 5.622 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.183 | Return On Assets 0.0872 |
The market value of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ACADIA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.