Alger Capital Appreciation Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 7.25
| ACATX Fund | USD 7.57 0.01 0.13% |
Alger |
Alger Capital Target Price Odds to finish below 7.25
The tendency of Alger Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 7.25 or more in 90 days |
| 7.57 | 90 days | 7.25 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alger Capital to drop to $ 7.25 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Alger Capital Appreciation probability density function shows the probability of Alger Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alger Capital Apprec price to stay between $ 7.25 and its current price of $7.57 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.07 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Alger Capital has a beta of 0.0082. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Alger Capital average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alger Capital Appreciation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alger Capital Appreciation has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Alger Capital Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alger Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alger Capital Apprec. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alger Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alger Capital Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alger Capital is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alger Capital's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alger Capital Appreciation, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alger Capital within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.10 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.51 |
Alger Capital Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alger Capital for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alger Capital Apprec can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alger Capital Apprec generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alger Capital Apprec generated five year return of -1.0% | |
| This fund holds most of the assets under management (AUM) in different types of exotic instruments. |
Alger Capital Technical Analysis
Alger Capital's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alger Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alger Capital Appreciation. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alger Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alger Capital Predictive Forecast Models
Alger Capital's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alger Capital's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alger Capital's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alger Capital Apprec
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alger Capital for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alger Capital Apprec help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alger Capital Apprec generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alger Capital Apprec generated five year return of -1.0% | |
| This fund holds most of the assets under management (AUM) in different types of exotic instruments. |
Other Information on Investing in Alger Mutual Fund
Alger Capital financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alger Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alger with respect to the benefits of owning Alger Capital security.
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