Aurora Cannabis Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.94
| ACB Stock | USD 4.55 0.01 0.22% |
Aurora |
Aurora Cannabis Target Price Odds to finish below 0.94
The tendency of Aurora Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.94 or more in 90 days |
| 4.55 | 90 days | 0.94 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aurora Cannabis to drop to $ 0.94 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Aurora Cannabis probability density function shows the probability of Aurora Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aurora Cannabis price to stay between $ 0.94 and its current price of $4.55 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.01 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Aurora Cannabis has a beta of -0.4. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Aurora Cannabis are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Aurora Cannabis is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Aurora Cannabis has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Aurora Cannabis Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aurora Cannabis
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aurora Cannabis. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aurora Cannabis' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aurora Cannabis Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aurora Cannabis is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aurora Cannabis' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aurora Cannabis, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aurora Cannabis within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.28 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.4 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.57 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Aurora Cannabis Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aurora Cannabis for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aurora Cannabis can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aurora Cannabis generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Aurora Cannabis has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Aurora Cannabis has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 270.28 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (59.05 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 21.23 M. | |
| Aurora Cannabis has about 439.14 M in cash with (68.51 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.46. | |
| Aurora Cannabis has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures |
Aurora Cannabis Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aurora Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aurora Cannabis' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aurora Cannabis' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 117.5 M |
Aurora Cannabis Technical Analysis
Aurora Cannabis' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aurora Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aurora Cannabis. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aurora Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aurora Cannabis Predictive Forecast Models
Aurora Cannabis' time-series forecasting models is one of many Aurora Cannabis' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aurora Cannabis' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aurora Cannabis
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aurora Cannabis for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aurora Cannabis help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aurora Cannabis generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Aurora Cannabis has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Aurora Cannabis has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 270.28 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (59.05 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 21.23 M. | |
| Aurora Cannabis has about 439.14 M in cash with (68.51 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.46. | |
| Aurora Cannabis has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures |
Check out Aurora Cannabis Backtesting, Aurora Cannabis Valuation, Aurora Cannabis Correlation, Aurora Cannabis Hype Analysis, Aurora Cannabis Volatility, Aurora Cannabis History as well as Aurora Cannabis Performance. For information on how to trade Aurora Stock refer to our How to Trade Aurora Stock guide.You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aurora Cannabis. If investors know Aurora will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aurora Cannabis listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Aurora Cannabis is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aurora that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aurora Cannabis' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aurora Cannabis' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aurora Cannabis' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aurora Cannabis' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aurora Cannabis' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aurora Cannabis is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aurora Cannabis' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.