ADF Foods (India) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 272.88
| ADFFOODS | 303.20 0.45 0.15% |
ADF |
ADF Foods Target Price Odds to finish below 272.88
The tendency of ADF Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 272.88 or more in 90 days |
| 303.20 | 90 days | 272.88 | about 34.03 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ADF Foods to drop to 272.88 or more in 90 days from now is about 34.03 (This ADF Foods Limited probability density function shows the probability of ADF Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ADF Foods Limited price to stay between 272.88 and its current price of 303.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 54.04 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ADF Foods Limited has a beta of -0.025. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding ADF Foods are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, ADF Foods Limited is likely to outperform the market. Additionally ADF Foods Limited has an alpha of 0.4876, implying that it can generate a 0.49 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ADF Foods Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ADF Foods
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ADF Foods Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ADF Foods Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ADF Foods is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ADF Foods' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ADF Foods Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ADF Foods within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.49 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 19.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.1 |
ADF Foods Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ADF Foods for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ADF Foods Limited can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ADF Foods Limited had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| ADF Foods Limited is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 41.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
ADF Foods Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ADF Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ADF Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ADF Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 109.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.4 B |
ADF Foods Technical Analysis
ADF Foods' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ADF Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ADF Foods Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing ADF Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ADF Foods Predictive Forecast Models
ADF Foods' time-series forecasting models is one of many ADF Foods' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ADF Foods' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ADF Foods Limited
Checking the ongoing alerts about ADF Foods for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ADF Foods Limited help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ADF Foods Limited had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| ADF Foods Limited is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 41.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in ADF Stock
ADF Foods financial ratios help investors to determine whether ADF Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ADF with respect to the benefits of owning ADF Foods security.