AES (Germany) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.82
| AES Stock | 12.46 0.11 0.89% |
AES |
AES Target Price Odds to finish below 9.82
The tendency of AES Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 9.82 or more in 90 days |
| 12.46 | 90 days | 9.82 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AES to drop to 9.82 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This The AES probability density function shows the probability of AES Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AES price to stay between 9.82 and its current price of 12.46 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.82 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon The AES has a beta of -0.46. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding AES are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, The AES is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The AES has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. AES Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AES
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AES. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AES's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AES Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AES is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AES's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold The AES, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AES within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.46 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.69 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
AES Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AES for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AES can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AES generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| AES has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 12.62 B. Net Loss for the year was (546 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. |
AES Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AES Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AES's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AES's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 668.7 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -422 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 1.8 B |
AES Technical Analysis
AES's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AES Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of The AES. In general, you should focus on analyzing AES Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AES Predictive Forecast Models
AES's time-series forecasting models is one of many AES's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AES's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AES
Checking the ongoing alerts about AES for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AES help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AES generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| AES has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 12.62 B. Net Loss for the year was (546 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. |
Additional Tools for AES Stock Analysis
When running AES's price analysis, check to measure AES's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AES is operating at the current time. Most of AES's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AES's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AES's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AES to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.