Applied Finance Explorer Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 13.93
| AFDVX Fund | USD 24.49 0.37 1.53% |
Applied |
Applied Finance Target Price Odds to finish below 13.93
The tendency of Applied Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 13.93 or more in 90 days |
| 24.49 | 90 days | 13.93 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Applied Finance to drop to $ 13.93 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Applied Finance Explorer probability density function shows the probability of Applied Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Applied Finance Explorer price to stay between $ 13.93 and its current price of $24.49 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the mutual fund has the beta coefficient of 1.38 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Applied Finance will likely underperform. Additionally Applied Finance Explorer has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Applied Finance Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Applied Finance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applied Finance Explorer. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Applied Finance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Applied Finance Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Applied Finance is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Applied Finance's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Applied Finance Explorer, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Applied Finance within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.38 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.68 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Applied Finance Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Applied Finance for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Applied Finance Explorer can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund holds about 7.33% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Applied Finance Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Applied Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Applied Finance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Applied Finance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Applied Finance Technical Analysis
Applied Finance's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Applied Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Applied Finance Explorer. In general, you should focus on analyzing Applied Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Applied Finance Predictive Forecast Models
Applied Finance's time-series forecasting models is one of many Applied Finance's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Applied Finance's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Applied Finance Explorer
Checking the ongoing alerts about Applied Finance for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Applied Finance Explorer help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund holds about 7.33% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Applied Mutual Fund
Applied Finance financial ratios help investors to determine whether Applied Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Applied with respect to the benefits of owning Applied Finance security.
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