Aflac Incorporated (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 112.21
| AFL Stock | EUR 108.40 0.50 0.46% |
Aflac |
Aflac Incorporated Target Price Odds to finish below 112.21
The tendency of Aflac Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 112.21 after 90 days |
| 108.40 | 90 days | 112.21 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aflac Incorporated to stay under € 112.21 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Aflac Incorporated probability density function shows the probability of Aflac Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aflac Incorporated price to stay between its current price of € 108.40 and € 112.21 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.22 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Aflac Incorporated has a beta of -0.0174. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Aflac Incorporated are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Aflac Incorporated is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Aflac Incorporated has an alpha of 0.1441, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aflac Incorporated Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aflac Incorporated
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aflac Incorporated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aflac Incorporated Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aflac Incorporated is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aflac Incorporated's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aflac Incorporated, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aflac Incorporated within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.60 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Aflac Incorporated Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aflac Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aflac Incorporated's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aflac Incorporated's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 615.3 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -979 M |
Aflac Incorporated Technical Analysis
Aflac Incorporated's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aflac Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aflac Incorporated. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aflac Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aflac Incorporated Predictive Forecast Models
Aflac Incorporated's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aflac Incorporated's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aflac Incorporated's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Aflac Incorporated in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Aflac Incorporated's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Aflac Incorporated options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Aflac Stock
When determining whether Aflac Incorporated is a strong investment it is important to analyze Aflac Incorporated's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Aflac Incorporated's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Aflac Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Aflac Incorporated Backtesting, Aflac Incorporated Valuation, Aflac Incorporated Correlation, Aflac Incorporated Hype Analysis, Aflac Incorporated Volatility, Aflac Incorporated History as well as Aflac Incorporated Performance. For information on how to trade Aflac Stock refer to our How to Trade Aflac Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.