Associated British (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 27.75
| AFO1 Stock | 26.38 0.16 0.60% |
Associated |
Associated British Target Price Odds to finish below 27.75
The tendency of Associated Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 27.75 after 90 days |
| 26.38 | 90 days | 27.75 | about 80.24 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Associated British to stay under 27.75 after 90 days from now is about 80.24 (This Associated British Foods probability density function shows the probability of Associated Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Associated British Foods price to stay between its current price of 26.38 and 27.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 54.05 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Associated British Foods has a beta of -0.16. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Associated British are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Associated British Foods is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Associated British Foods has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Associated British Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Associated British
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Associated British Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Associated British Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Associated British is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Associated British's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Associated British Foods, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Associated British within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.92 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
Associated British Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Associated Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Associated British's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Associated British's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 791.7 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 380 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 157 M |
Associated British Technical Analysis
Associated British's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Associated Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Associated British Foods. In general, you should focus on analyzing Associated Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Associated British Predictive Forecast Models
Associated British's time-series forecasting models is one of many Associated British's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Associated British's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Associated British in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Associated British's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Associated British options trading.
Additional Tools for Associated Stock Analysis
When running Associated British's price analysis, check to measure Associated British's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Associated British is operating at the current time. Most of Associated British's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Associated British's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Associated British's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Associated British to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.